Wealth Insights and Perspectives

With strong earnings growth still intact, we see potential opportunity around recent volatility to add quality exposure, hedge speculative risk, and diversify globally. 

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The AUD is finding renewed support especially on non-USD crosses from the hawkish tone of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s November meeting

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Citi is underweight duration but has an up-in-quality bias.

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With strong earnings growth still intact, we see potential opportunity around recent volatility to add quality exposure...

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Beneath the noise, U.S. growth, inflation, and earnings resilience are testing the Fed's conviction to cut rates amid a data blackout. At the same time, tech's relentless CapEx expansion and the dominance of mega-cap fundamentals underscore where true market leadership and durability continue to reside. 

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USDJPY has risen more than 2% since Sanae Takaichi was elected Japan’s first female Prime Minister on October 4. But are fears overblown over Yen weakness?  The weakness in JPY has been primarily driven by concerns about Ms. Takaichi’s reflation policies. Investors fear that if she maintains a dovish bias, it could result in higher fiscal spending and a slower path towards BoJ rate normalization.

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Beneath the noise of headlines, credit markets remain stable, large-cap companies continue to deliver productivity gains through AI and automation, and global diversification themes around China and Gold are shaping the potential opportunity set for portfolios. We continue to emphasize quality, discipline, and patience as key differentiators in the current phase of the cycle.

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Citi’s Chief Investment Office believes that globally, we are in a recovery phase with growth and inflation ticking up...

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Earnings season in the U.S. show that airlines are citing resilient demand from wealthier travelers seeking premium experiences, whereas food and essentials-oriented companies are highlighting pressure on lower-income consumers due to the burden of rising fixed costs. But the improvement in growth, continued fiscal expansion in Europe, and decline in geopolitical risk in the Middle East support our global underweight duration stance while remaining overweight European and EM (China) equities. We continue to evaluate potential opportunities to add back to global duration, but dynamics such as these push back that timing until we feel rates properly compensate investors for the fiscal and growth regime.

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Markets are now contending with renewed uncertainty – geopolitical realignments that affect supply chains, elections that could reshape fiscal priorities, and domestic tensions that threaten reform momentum.

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Lower rates, fiscal stimulus, and tax cuts are offsetting tariff headwinds for now, but inflation and consumption effects are still in the early innings. As such, we are maintaining our neutral risk allocations in portfolios.

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The Singapore dollar (SGD) is the 2nd best performer within Asia EM FX YTD and at the current 1.2760 vs USD, appears to be heading towards the highs last seen against USD in mid-2014 at just under 1.2400…if the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) allows it.

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The Federal Open Market Committee cut rates by 25bps to 4.25% at its September meeting. Two more rate cuts are anticipated for the rest of the year. Over longer term horizons, new all-time highs tend to beget new all-time highs when the Federal Reserve is reducing interest rates. However, more interest rate cuts may lead to a more prolonged period of USD underperformance and, therefore, emerging market equity outperformance.

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Last week’s disappointing US labor market report confirmed a sluggish jobs market and solidified a Federal Reserve rate cut at their meeting this month. We see monetary policy focus on an evolving labor market opening the door for nominally (i.e. with inflation) improving activity in the medium-term.

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We expect a slowdown in 2H2025 economic activity but not a collapse. The full impact of tariffs remains to be seen given sharing of costs across exporters, corporations, and consumers. Within the CIO views deck, we provide a compilation of observations we made for macroeconomics, equities, fixed income, FX, and commodities that will help to navigate markets.

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The United Kingdom appears to have a better trade deal outcome with the US than the euro area currently based on the tariff figure alone. But the sterling has still underperformed the euro since the start of this year as stagflationary headwinds and policy constraints dominate the UK landscape. This might continue and could see sterling underperformance against euro extend to year end, leading the EURGBP cross to head higher towards the 0.8800 – 0.8900 level later this year or in early 2026.

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A dovish tilt from Fed Chair Powell’s speech gave rise to investors’ risk appetite for risk-taking. However, the US labor market and the inflationary outlook would give a challenging setup for future FOMC meetings later this year.

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Prior to the US July jobs report release on August 1, the dollar staged a tactical rebound in early July. But this tactical rebound may be ending, and USD’s next bearish phase may be commencing.

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