Citi Wealth Insights

Bringing Citi's Global Views to You with

Citi Wealth Insights

Stay updated on key global market developments and Citi's house views on the latest headlines

Building Quality into Portfolios

Q3 2025: Navigate volatility with investment grade fixed income

29 Aug 2025

Volatility remains a concern as we approach a traditional period of weakness in August and September. We remain alert to the potential risks that tariffs and evolving policies may pose to US growth in the second half of 2025. Our base case anticipates slow, but not stalled, economic activity. In this economic landscape, we believe investment grade fixed income may be the best poised to handle the volatility and to provide opportunities for some growth and stability. Our cautious stance on risk also supports our decision to maintain a high-quality credit bias, focusing primarily on investment-grade securities due to the lower correlation of lower-quality credit spreads with equity markets.​

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Riding on Fiscal Policy

Riding on Fiscal Policy

8 Aug 2025

The Chief Investment Office recently added an “overweight” rating European equities as the scope for flows and policy support remains high. Read more about our latest observations for European equities.

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Building Quality into Portfolios

Building Quality into Portfolios

18 July 2025

In our latest Global Investment Committee Asset Allocation, we continue to view quality companies as being best positioned to weather volatile and highly uncertain trade, geopolitical and macroeconomic environments. These companies tend to have strong fundamentals and stable earnings which may weather them through a range of economic conditions.​

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Navigating US Markets without Government Data

Navigating US Markets without Government Data

06 Oct 2025

  • While we have gained confidence on a resilient nominal growth environment into year-end and remain constructive on risk in the medium-term, we still believe it is still too early to see if there will be impact from tariff-driven inflation and its related impacts.

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Policy uncertainty balanced against consumer resilience

CIO Views October 2025

03 Oct 2025

  • Lower rates, fiscal stimulus, and tax cuts are offsetting tariff headwinds for now, but inflation and consumption effects are still in the early innings. As such, we are maintaining our neutral risk allocations in portfolios.

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New Nominal

Adjusting to the new nominal

29 Sep 2025

  • Market reaction to Fed cut points to near-term reflation potential. Entering the Fed meeting last week, our view centered around the potential for increased inflation expectations and higher yields resulting from an adjustment lower in the policy rate. Since then, US Treasury yields have moved 15-20bps higher across the curve, solely driven by a move higher in inflation indexed/real yields. This shift higher in real yields reflects investors requiring more yield compensation due to a higher expected inflation rate in the future.

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Fed pivots and cuts rates 25bps

Fed pivots and cuts rates 25bps

22 Sep 2025

  • The Federal Open Market Committee cut rates by 25bps to 4.25% at its September meeting. Two more rate cuts are anticipated for the rest of the year. Over longer term horizons, new all-time highs tend to beget new all-time highs when the Federal Reserve is reducing interest rates. However, more interest rate cuts may lead to a more prolonged period of USD underperformance and, therefore, emerging market equity outperformance.

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Building Quality into Portfolios

Market crossroads: Fed, AI, and Trade

15 Sep 2025

  • The Federal Reserve is set to cut interest rates by 25bps. Globally, cutting cycles slow down as rising longer-term rates reflect an improving outlook. Cloud and AI trends remain firmly intact, while rate cuts support real-economy sectors. Tariff effects are still in early innings with the bulk of the impact expected to show in 3Q and 4Q.

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market

Labor Dynamics Argue for Fed Support

08 Sep 2025

  • Last week’s disappointing US labor market report confirmed a sluggish jobs market and solidified a Federal Reserve rate cut at their meeting this month. We see monetary policy focus on an evolving labor market opening the door for nominally (i.e. with inflation) improving activity in the medium-term.

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Slowing, but not stalled, economic activity

Slowing, but not stalled, economic activity

02 Sep 2025

  • We expect a slowdown in 2H2025 economic activity but not a collapse. The full impact of tariffs remains to be seen given sharing of costs across exporters, corporations, and consumers. Within the CIO views deck, we provide a compilation of observations we made for macroeconomics, equities, fixed income, FX, and commodities that will help to navigate markets.

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market

Markets celebrate Powell’s dovish tilt

25 Aug 2025

  • A dovish tilt from Fed Chair Powell’s speech gave rise to investors’ risk appetite for risk-taking. However, the US labor market and the inflationary outlook would give a challenging setup for future FOMC meetings later this year.

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Data resilience despite policy instability

Tariff tremors turn the market

18 Aug 2025

Mixed economic data increased factor volatility. Weak July jobs report solidified the chance for a September rate cut but above-target inflation limits the magnitude of the rate cut. Chinese equities see strong liquidity and targeted policy support.

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K-shaped

K-shaped frictions in equities and the Fed mandate

11 Aug 2025

  • Tech stocks continue to be poised for outperformance due to significant AI investment. Despite concerns on sticky inflation, there is continued political pressure on the Federal Reserve for rate cuts.

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Another case of the “yips”?

Big Tech triumphs, macro mixed

4 Aug 2025

  • The continued dominance of Tech earnings reminded investors that the market is not the economy. Looking ahead, newly announced tariffs adds a headwind to further equity upside.

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SGD strengthen

Will the SGD strengthen further?

25 Sep 2025

The Singapore dollar (SGD) is the 2nd best performer within Asia EM FX YTD and at the current 1.2760 vs USD, appears to be heading towards the highs last seen against USD in mid-2014 at just under 1.2400…if the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) allows it. 

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25% tariff on Japan a short-term setback for Yen bulls

NZD likely to underperform AUD on growth, rate differentials and external drivers

12 Sep 2025

NZ growth is stalling amid a sharply weakening labor market whereas Australia’s growth has likely troughed. Australia’s labor market is also expected to remain within the bounds of full-employment estimates. Externally, Australia has a higher beta to China in comparison to NZ and the de-escalation in US-China trade tensions raises the prospect for some RMB strength as part of a broad trade/ currency agreement with the US. This also likely benefits AUD more than NZD over the medium-term.

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Sterling

Sterling’s underperformance against EUR could continue

28 Aug 2025

The United Kingdom appears to have a better trade deal outcome with the US than the euro area currently based on the tariff figure alone. But the sterling has still underperformed the euro since the start of this year as stagflationary headwinds and policy constraints dominate the UK landscape. This might continue and could see sterling underperformance against euro extend to year end, leading the EURGBP cross to head higher towards the 0.8800 – 0.8900 level later this year or in early 2026.

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AUD Stars

USD’s tactical rebound may lead to range-bound 2H25

19 Aug 2025

Prior to the US July jobs report release on August 1, the dollar staged a tactical rebound in early July. But this tactical rebound may be ending, and USD’s next bearish phase may be commencing.

Read more in your Citi Mobile® App’s Digital Library*.

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