The Chief Investment Office recently added an “overweight” rating European equities as the scope for flows and policy support remains high. Read more about our latest observations for European equities.
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Volatility remains a concern as we approach a traditional period of weakness in August and September. We remain alert to the potential risks that tariffs and evolving policies may pose to US growth in the second half of 2025. Our base case anticipates slow, but not stalled, economic activity. In this economic landscape, we believe investment grade fixed income may be the best poised to handle the volatility and to provide opportunities for some growth and stability. Our cautious stance on risk also supports our decision to maintain a high-quality credit bias, focusing primarily on investment-grade securities due to the lower correlation of lower-quality credit spreads with equity markets.
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The Chief Investment Office recently added an “overweight” rating European equities as the scope for flows and policy support remains high. Read more about our latest observations for European equities.
Read more in your Citi Mobile® App’s Digital Library*.
In our latest Global Investment Committee Asset Allocation, we continue to view quality companies as being best positioned to weather volatile and highly uncertain trade, geopolitical and macroeconomic environments. These companies tend to have strong fundamentals and stable earnings which may weather them through a range of economic conditions.
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Read more in your Citi Mobile® App’s Digital Library*.
Read more in your Citi Mobile® App’s Digital Library*.
Read more in your Citi Mobile® App’s Digital Library*.
Read more in your Citi Mobile® App’s Digital Library*.
Read more in your Citi Mobile® App’s Digital Library*.
Read more in your Citi Mobile® App’s Digital Library*.
Read more in your Citi Mobile® App’s Digital Library*.
Read more in your Citi Mobile® App’s Digital Library*.
Mixed economic data increased factor volatility. Weak July jobs report solidified the chance for a September rate cut but above-target inflation limits the magnitude of the rate cut. Chinese equities see strong liquidity and targeted policy support.
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Read more in your Citi Mobile® App’s Digital Library*.
Read more in your Citi Mobile® App’s Digital Library*.
The Singapore dollar (SGD) is the 2nd best performer within Asia EM FX YTD and at the current 1.2760 vs USD, appears to be heading towards the highs last seen against USD in mid-2014 at just under 1.2400…if the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) allows it.
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NZ growth is stalling amid a sharply weakening labor market whereas Australia’s growth has likely troughed. Australia’s labor market is also expected to remain within the bounds of full-employment estimates. Externally, Australia has a higher beta to China in comparison to NZ and the de-escalation in US-China trade tensions raises the prospect for some RMB strength as part of a broad trade/ currency agreement with the US. This also likely benefits AUD more than NZD over the medium-term.
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The United Kingdom appears to have a better trade deal outcome with the US than the euro area currently based on the tariff figure alone. But the sterling has still underperformed the euro since the start of this year as stagflationary headwinds and policy constraints dominate the UK landscape. This might continue and could see sterling underperformance against euro extend to year end, leading the EURGBP cross to head higher towards the 0.8800 – 0.8900 level later this year or in early 2026.
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Prior to the US July jobs report release on August 1, the dollar staged a tactical rebound in early July. But this tactical rebound may be ending, and USD’s next bearish phase may be commencing.
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